Durham water supply falls below 80 days, with rain offering uncertain relief
Durham’s latest figures show reservoirs at 31% capacity and 79 days of readily accessible water. But the data predate Friday’s storm, and another system could develop along the East Coast late next week.
Wes Platt
Durham’s estimated readily accessible water supply has fallen below 80 days, but Friday’s rain and the possibility of another storm late next week offer at least some hope of slowing the decline.
The city’s latest published figures, dated Nov. 5, show Durham’s reservoirs at 31% capacity, down from 33% four days earlier. The estimate of readily accessible reservoir water fell from 83 days to 79 days.
Those numbers were posted before Friday’s storms. The National Weather Service measured 1.07 inches of storm-total rainfall at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, but rainfall at RDU doesn’t tell us how much reached the Lake Michie and Little River watersheds.
As of Saturday afternoon, the city hadn’t published updated rainfall or lake-level readings showing the storm’s effect on Durham’s water supply.
Stage 2 mandatory water restrictions remain in effect, Durham remains in severe drought, and city officials continue to describe Stage 3 restrictions as a possibility.
By the numbers
Combined reservoir storage, down from 33% on Nov. 1.
Readily accessible reservoir water remaining, down from 83 days.
Total estimated supply when less accessible water and Teer Quarry are included, down from 152 days.
The 30-day average demand placed on Durham’s reservoirs, up slightly from 23.46 MGD.
Gallons of total water demand on Nov. 5.
Storm-total rain measured Friday at RDU. Reservoir watershed totals weren’t yet available.
Friday’s rain came after the city’s latest snapshot
The city had recorded no November rainfall at either reservoir through Nov. 5. Friday’s storm arrived after that reporting cutoff.
The latest published storage, lake-level, and days-of-supply figures don’t show whether Friday’s rain slowed the decline or produced runoff into the reservoirs.
RDU’s 1.07-inch total is encouraging, but rainfall can vary considerably across Durham County. Lake Michie is fed by the Flat River watershed north of Durham, while the Little River feeds Little River Reservoir. Rain over downtown Durham, South Durham, or the airport won’t necessarily reach either water-supply lake.
The next city update should provide a clearer picture through rainfall readings at the reservoirs and changes in their elevations.
Both lakes dropped before the storm
The latest lake-level readings were taken Nov. 5:
- Lake Michie: 327.99 feet, or 13.01 feet below full. That’s 1.11 feet lower than the Oct. 28 reading.
- Little River Reservoir: 335.93 feet, or 19.07 feet below full. That’s 0.82 feet lower than the Oct. 28 reading.
Combined reservoir storage declined from 33% on Nov. 1 to 31% on Nov. 5.
Durham’s broader supply estimate also fell by five days, from 152 days to 147. The Nov. 5 estimate includes:
- 79 days of readily accessible reservoir water, down from 83
- 51 days of less accessible water below the intake structures, unchanged
- 17 days in Teer Quarry emergency storage, down from 18
Those supplies aren’t equally accessible. The first 79 days represent water above the reservoirs’ intake levels. Reaching the water below those structures would require additional measures, while Teer Quarry is a separate emergency source.
The estimates aren’t a countdown to dry taps. They’re planning figures based partly on recent demand, and they can change as rainfall, streamflow, water use, and reservoir conditions change.
Dry weather first, then another chance of rain
Friday’s storm has moved away from central North Carolina. The National Weather Service forecast for Durham calls for dry weather through Wednesday, with mostly sunny days and clear or partly cloudy nights.
Another opportunity for rain could arrive late next week. As of Saturday afternoon, the Durham forecast included a 30% chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night.
Forecasters also are watching the potential for a storm to develop along the Atlantic coast. The National Weather Service said forecast models disagree about the system’s possible size and development, making the late-week forecast likely to change.
The Weather Prediction Center expects a broader weather system to support showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains through the Gulf Coast and Southeast during the middle to latter part of the week.
This isn’t currently a tropical threat. The National Hurricane Center reported no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic on Saturday.
For Durham’s water supply, the important question isn’t simply whether it rains somewhere along the East Coast. Meaningful improvement depends on how much rain falls over the local watersheds and how much of it becomes runoff into the reservoirs.
Demand is moving in the wrong direction
The 30-day average demand placed on Durham’s reservoirs edged up from 23.46 million gallons per day on Nov. 1 to 23.51 million gallons per day on Nov. 5.
Durham’s total water demand reached 33.73 million gallons on Nov. 5. The month-to-date average was 33.17 million gallons per day, nearly 18% higher than the November 2025 average of 28.13 million gallons.
That comparison remains preliminary because the 2026 figure covers only the first five days of November. Still, higher demand makes it harder for rainfall or supplemental supplies to stabilize Durham’s reservoir outlook.
Durham began buying water from the Orange Water and Sewer Authority on Nov. 2. The city is also buying part of its Jordan Lake allocation through the Town of Cary and drawing water from Teer Quarry.
Stage 2 restrictions remain in effect
The mandatory rules for City of Durham water customers include:
- Don’t use spray irrigation, including hose-end sprinklers. There are no scheduled spray-watering days under Stage 2.
- Hand watering, drip irrigation, and tree or shrub watering bags are allowed.
- Don’t wash vehicles with city water at home. Commercial and institutional car washes are allowed.
- Don’t use city water to wash sidewalks, driveways, decks, or building exteriors unless it’s needed for health or safety, or before painting.
- Don’t add water to decorative fountains, ponds, or pools unless the water is recycled.
- Restaurants should serve drinking water only when customers request it.
- Users consuming more than 100,000 gallons a day should work toward a 30% reduction and document their efforts.
Some exemptions apply, including for properties operating under approved water-conservation plans. Residents and businesses should review the city’s Durham Saves Water page for the complete rules.
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Wes Platt
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