Friday’s rain barely budged Durham’s water outlook as Stage 3 remains possible

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Southpoint AccessWes Platt

When we checked Durham’s water supply Saturday, there was one big unanswered question: Did Friday’s rain make a meaningful difference at Lake Michie and Little River Reservoir?

The city’s latest numbers suggest the answer is no.

As of Nov. 8, Durham had 78 days of readily accessible reservoir water remaining, down from 79 days in the Nov. 5 snapshot. Total estimated supply remained at 147 days once harder-to-reach reservoir water and Teer Quarry are included.

That means the city’s latest figures now include the period after Friday’s storm — and they show essentially no turnaround from the decline we reported last week.

The biggest change is in demand rather than supply. The 30-day average draw on the reservoirs fell by nearly half a million gallons per day, which helps stretch the available water farther even while lake levels remain stressed.

Friday’s rain mostly missed the reservoirs

Our previous update noted that Raleigh-Durham International Airport recorded more than an inch of rain Friday, but that RDU rainfall doesn’t necessarily tell us what happened in Durham’s water-supply watersheds.

Now we know more.

Through Nov. 8, the city recorded only 0.16 inches of rain at Lake Michie and 0.16 inches at Little River Reservoir for the entire month.

So while Friday’s storm brought welcome rain to parts of the Triangle, very little of it fell where Durham most needed it.

Lake Michie depends on the Flat River watershed, while Little River Reservoir depends on the Little River watershed. A soaking rain in South Durham, at RDU, or elsewhere in the Triangle can leave the city’s actual water-supply lakes nearly untouched.

Durham has been emphasizing the same point: reservoir recovery depends on rain falling inside those watersheds, and the city says the area has accumulated an 18.6-inch rainfall deficit since August 2025.

Stage 2 remains in effect

Durham remains under mandatory Stage 2 water restrictions, which began June 15.

Those rules prohibit spray irrigation using city water, residential vehicle washing, and most washing of sidewalks, driveways, decks, and building exteriors. Hand watering, drip irrigation, and tree or shrub watering bags remain allowed.

The city is supplementing Lake Michie and Little River Reservoir by buying part of Durham’s Jordan Lake allocation through Cary, pumping water from Teer Quarry, and purchasing water from the Orange Water and Sewer Authority.

But city officials continue to say Stage 3 remains possible if demand, weather, and water-supply conditions worsen.

What would change under Stage 3?

For most households, the biggest difference would be outdoor watering.

Under Stage 2, hand watering and drip irrigation are still allowed. Under Stage 3, they would be prohibited along with spray irrigation. Durham’s Water Shortage Response Plan allows only narrow exceptions, such as watering containerized plants and commercial plants grown for sale.

Other Stage 3 restrictions would include:

• No hand watering, drip irrigation, or subsurface irrigation with city water.
• No new landscape watering exemptions.
• Vehicle washing would remain limited to qualifying commercial facilities.
• Surface washing would remain prohibited except where necessary for public health or safety.
• Large water users consuming more than 100,000 gallons a day would face a 50% conservation goal, compared with 30% under Stage 2.

Stage 3 could also lead to separate restrictions on construction, but those aren’t automatic. Durham City Council would have to separately impose drought-related construction restrictions.

Stage 3 isn’t tied to a simple countdown

One point worth keeping clear: Durham doesn’t automatically move to Stage 3 when the readily accessible supply reaches a certain number of days.

The city uses its Water Shortage Response Plan and water-supply modeling to determine when tighter restrictions are warranted. Durham’s FAQ says Stage 2 will remain in place until the reservoirs refill or the city determines that conditions require Stage 3.

So 78 days doesn’t mean Durham has 78 days before Stage 3, nor does the broader 147-day supply estimate mean the city can relax.

These are planning estimates that change with rainfall, demand, supplemental water purchases, streamflow, and how much water can actually be accessed from each source.

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